In the 2016 presidential race, the people of the United States are witnessing campaigns and talking points, along with the sheer number of candidates, like no other race in recent history. GOP frontrunner Donald Trump most often makes headlines for his language, especially toward immigrants, and his support for violence against those who disagree with him.
One of Trump’s most controversial plans involves sending all undocumented immigrants back to their home countries and building a wall on the U.S-Mexico border. Many of Trump’s devotees are just as supportive of the plan as he is.
Nearly 11 million undocumented immigrants currently live in the U.S., making up 5.1 percent of the labor force as of 2012. In a Trump administration, they might be rounded up and sent “home,” leaving thousands of jobs open. This does not mean a sudden surge of jobs for native-born American workers — rather, Americans may see fewer jobs and no raises. The service industry as we know it would collapse, as an estimated 35 percent of service industry jobs are made up of undocumented workers, according to Pew Research analyses based on Census data.
The actual process of deporting all 11 million or so undocumented immigrants is a costly plan, besides the blow the economy would take with the open jobs. In the two year timeframe that Trump is proposing, the overall cost would add up to at least $400 billion dollars, along with reducing the U.S. GDP by $1 trillion. Why such a high cost? The process of detaining undocumented immigrants, trying them in court and transporting them to their home countries is not built for a mass deportation; the number of federal agents would need to increase to 90,000, much higher than our current 4,000 agents. Detention facilities would require an increase in beds from 34,000 to nearly 348,831 beds, with 1,300 new courts needed to try all the individuals facing deportation. This, in turn, would require 30,000 more attorneys. The actual deportation itself would require about 87 buses and 47 chartered flights to be sent out every day for two years.
In addition to all the combined setbacks of a mass deportation, one of Trump’s biggest plans — building a wall between Mexico and the U.S. — would only add more to the financial burden the U.S. is facing. Although Trump and his supporters are adamant about making a border wall paid for by Mexico a reality, Mexican Treasury Secretary Luis Videgaray said, “Mexico will under no circumstance pay for the wall Mr. Trump is proposing.” The cost for the wall alone, based on the cost of highway panels, is about $10 billion — not including other factors like surveillance, labor, equipment, and security.
Trump’s plan to “make America great again” fails to acknowledge that much of the greatness that we know today can be credited to immigrants, both documented and undocumented. We’ve seen just fractions of the costs of Trump’s immigration plan, and his plans to cut off federal grants to sanctuary cities and triple the number of Immigration and Customs Enforcement officers only adds to the underlying economic problems the U.S. faces. What’s more, Trump is calling for a moratorium on green cards for foreign work, and could likely make the already complicated and drawn out process of legal immigration even more difficult.
Even so, immigrants, Mexican or otherwise, will not stop coming to the United States. Turning them away or ramping up security will help neither our economy nor those looking to live in the U.S. Under a Donald Trump presidency, the strides taken toward comprehensive immigration reform will likely be in vain, which we must keep in mind when voting in November. We know the positive impacts immigrants make on the U.S. economy through their entrepreneurship. Deporting undocumented immigrants and putting a hold on H1-B visas will not help the country continue to grow; comprehensive immigration reform will allow us to see America and its people become even greater.
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